Thursday 3 November 2011

Greek Madhouse

Although Greek PM Papandreou seems to have lost the support of his party over the referendum, Greek PM is a hard nut to crack. Chances are that he would NOT resign but go to the confidence vote (tomorrow) and dare the MP's to bring him down. This would mean one more day of volatility but this is politics. This opens up the doors to many scenarios:
  1. He loses the vote of confidence but refuses to resign. It is unlikely that anyone else from the opposition would command 151 votes for a coalition governemnet which means Elections
  2. PM resigns before the confidence vote but does not ask for elections. In this case, the PASOK would have the chance to elect a new leader that would have to form a government and ask for the confidence of the house (Vouli)
  3. PM resigns and asks the President for elections. PASOK elects a new leader and goes to polls.
  4. PM resigns and the President ask the political parties to form a National Unity Government. This NUG then accepts the directives of Europe and later (few months) goes to Polls again
  5. PM wins and forms a wider government possibly with opposition.
On any of these scenarios there is high uncertainty and political egos are running high. It is unlikely that we would have a smooth ride in the next few months with or without Mr. Papandreou. Tragedy and drama are integral part of Greek political life. ἢ τὰν ἢ ἐπὶ τᾶς.