Thursday, 19 April 2012

Foreign Law Bonds. Post election dilemma

Yesterday the second bondholders meeting took place. Those that had voted down the amendment or had the chance to vote again in favour or against the proposed amendments. We do not know the results as yet but according to the previous votes/exchange. Of particular interest is the XS0147393861 that matures on the 15th May 2012 (in less than a month). Out of the 450million only 14.1million voted in the first meeting in favour, If the vote has gone in a similar way then the new Greek government formed after the elections on the 6th would have an interesting choice. Either they are going to stick to their line of "no money" and default or they have one way or another pay the bond. They can buy the bond in another offer but going public may outrage other bondholders who participated. Causing a moratorium and failing to pay may be the best political option for the time being. It may be too early to start paying on holdouts. Of course they can de-list the bond but dont think this matters much now-days.
Then there is the subject of the Hell.railway bonds held by ABN and possibly some other Dutch entity. They said that they are not going to participate and this may cause further problems to Greece. The next maturity(FR0000489676)  is in  13 September 2012 and out of the 190million only 6million voted yes.
We are going to find out soon. Results on this and the other bonds are coming out soon.

Friday, 13 April 2012

Κακόβουλος Εθνικισμός και Ευρωπαϊκή προοπτική στις επόμενες εκλογές

 Δημοσιεύτηκε στο

 Ημερομηνίες Αναστάσεως του έθνους δημιουργίας κράτους
Υπάρχουν πολλές ημερομηνίες που οι Έλληνες γιορτάζουν αλλά η 3η Φεβρουάριου δεν είναι μια από αυτές. Η πραγματικότητα είναι πως εκτός ίσως των ιστορικών και ακαδημαϊκών κύκλων ελάχιστοι γνωρίζουν την σημασία της 3ης Φεβρουαρίου 1830 (22 Ιανουαρίου με το παλαιό ημερολόγιο). Είναι η ημέρα της αναγνώρισης της Ελλάδος ως ανεξάρτητου κυρίαρχου κράτους.  Είναι η πραγματική ημέρα γέννησης του σύγχρονου Ελληνικού κράτους.  Θα μπορούσαμε να ισχυριστούμε πως είναι και η πρώτη φορά που αναγνωρίζεται αυτό που ονομάζουμε Ελλάδα ως κράτος. Ούτε στην κλασική Ελλάδα ούτε και στην μετέπειτα βυζαντινή περίοδο δεν υπήρξε Ελληνικό κράτος, επικράτεια ή άλλη μορφής οντότητα. Αντί κράτους έχουμε τις σχετικά αφηρημένες έννοιες του έθνους, πόλης-κράτους, του ρωμαίικου, του Ελληνισμού της χριστιανικής θρησκείας, της Ελληνικής γλώσσας ως διακριτικά χαρακτηριστικά. Τι θα έπρεπε λοιπόν να γιορτάζουμε; Ποιά ημερομηνία θα έπρεπε να αναφέρεται στα σχολικά βιβλία και ποιά είναι η επίσημη γορτή του Ελληνικού κράτους, η 3η Φεβρουαρίου ή 25η Μαρτίου;

Sunday, 8 April 2012

Elections in Greece?

Officially the meat eating season for the devout finished few weeks ago. However, the Carnival in Greece seems to have been postponed for after Easter. There is wild speculation that Greece would go to the polls in early May, with the 6th of May as a highly possible date.
Greek elections are, like the carnival, never boring. The next ones are promised to be even more so. It would be the first time that the Greek people would have the chance to express their views on what has happened to them the past three years.

Friday, 6 April 2012

Bondholder's "changed" their mind. May12 has been tendered

Looking at the new communication (4 April) issued by the Hell.Republic and comparing it with the old one (2 April)we find some interesting differences. First the and foremost we see that the 450million of the May12 bondholders somehow changed their vote. In the first communique bondholders voted down the proposed amendments while in this one it show the bond tendered. What happened and how and why bondholders changed their mind? The only think that we can assume is that either they were forced by some higher force to change their mind or that the Hell.Republic through some if its friends offered to buy them out at their price and then the new buyer submitted the bonds to PSI. If this is the case then it would destroy the myth that Greece does not pay hold outs and does not have the money to pay them. It means simply that the victims of this exercise are the retail bondholders and those outside the European magic circle of Banks (recapitalised). Most of the others have either been compensated through recapitalizations or exempted or given like in the case of Greek pension funds were promised assets to make good what they have lost.

Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Radio Interview to J.Budden

Radio interview with John Budden. Compliments of News Talk Radio CFRA.

Monday, 2 April 2012

Results on the Foreign law voting

Finally the Hell.Republic decided to publish the results of the bondholder's meeting with respect to the Foreign law (mainly English) bonds. There were 36 bonds at stake with a total value of  20.4billion in nominal. The Hell.Republic's amendments were passed in 16 of the 36 with a total face value of 11.4billion. The majority of those passed (10 out of the 16) had a 75% majority rule and six had a 2/3. This points to a very friendly to the issuer bondholder mix.

For the rest 20 bonds of total face value 8.9 billion, 11 bonds voted against the amendment while 2 were postponed and 7 failed to reach a quorum.