The truth is that Greece can ill
afford an election right now and if one is caused chances are that there would
be a second too. The political landscape is changing very rapidly in Greece and
Europe should take note. Troika made a huge mistake thinking that the current
political system can reform Greece. Sooner or later they would have to face up
to this. The rise of extreme left and the fascists vote is a direct consequence
of letting PASOK and ND handle the reforms.
Just as you thought that Greece
is out of the picture and that everything is going smooth, a succession of
events placed Athens back in sunlight. First a failed privatization and next
the shutdown of the state TV fuelled speculation of an early election in Greece
once more.
GazProm
failed to bid for DEPA.
One of the basic building blocks
of the Greek stabilization program is the sale/privatization of state
enterprises to raise cash. The once very ambitious 50bln sale has been scaled
down or rather, recalculated on reality and not on fiction. Part of the plan
involved the state Gas enterprise DEPA and DESFA the national gas operator. The
government hoped to get around 1.5bln from the sale of both of them. Mind you
the money does not go towards the national budget but in a special escrow owned
by the creditors of Greece.
When the sale sign was put up by
the government however international investors failed to flock in. Only Gazprom
the giant Russian company hinted that it would bid. This is where the plot
darkens and thickens. Gazprom as everyone would tell you virtually own a
monopoly in Europe and getting Europe to agree to such a sale was always
difficult. But there are further twists in the plot and it involves the two
proposed gas pipes, Nabucco and TAP (TransAdriaticPipeline). Nabucco is favored
by USA and Europe and TAP was a compromise solution. TAP would reach Italy
through Greece from Turkey and it would also supply Bulgaria and other south
Eastern European countries.
In the end, Gazprom never showed
up for the Greek sale. According to press reports they did not even bother to
send an email saying that they are not interested. Part of the reason is surely
the messy state of the Greek DEPA which is still owed hundreds of millions of
unpaid bills. But most observers agree that the long hand of the European
commission was at play here. It seems that the EU whistled to Russia that it
would not at this stage approve such a change of ownership. Furthermore, there
are added complications in Syria where the West wants to step up the arming of
the anti-government forces against the will of Russia. In other words Europe
and the US applied the pressure in order to get a geostrategic message across
to Putin.
So Greece was caught in a game of
chess that was played far above their heads. The Greek PM Mr Samaras was humiliated
as he had made the sale a personal project. Moreover, the sale failure
destroyed the spin that the government was placing on a recovery scenario.
Greece looked gloomy and the GGB reflected this by selling off.
Annihilating
the state Media ERT
Something had to be done and the
Greek PM decided on a double down strategy. He ordered the closure of the state
owned Media (TV, Radio) ERT and the firing of close to 3000 journalists,
technicians and administrative staff. The
plan was to reopen the state media in a few months but with a much reduced
headcount. That decision fell like a nuclear bomb in Greece. Journalists went
berserk. After all it is they who control the media and it is their jobs.
International media went bananas
too. They saw that as an infringement on free speech and democracy. The truth
is somewhat different. The public media was never public. It was always
government media. Successive governments used the state media more or less like
Sadam used his Iraqi information minister Mr Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf who
famously declared that there are no Americans in Bagdad just as the US tank
rolled behind him. Most of the Greeks love to hate the state owned ERT. They
know it is a corrupt organization that produces mostly unwatchable content
(there are exceptions of course) but having an equally corrupt party (New
Democracy) taking the moral high ground is too much to bear. Few would doubt
that the new organization would be staffed using the Generally Agreed Practices
of corruption and nepotism and as a result they are angry that are left out.
All
TV media in Greece are illegal
What makes the whole think
farcical is that the government closed the ONLY legally operating TV channel in
Greece!! All the private stations in Greece operate more or less like pirates.
There was never any auction of frequencies or licenses. Simply some local
oligarchs opened a TV station to serve their own interests and got some
temporary license. So, if the Greek PM wants to have a level playing field it
should close all the private stations too, pending an auction.
Elections?
Probably not in the near future.
The current government is a
coalition of three parties. Neither PASOK nor DHMAR can afford to bring down
the government. For all the noise they are making PASOK would have a hard time
getting the 3% to enter the parliament and DHMAR would lose out from SYRIZA
(Left). On the other hand Samaras party (ND) might gain from his right and the
fascists. Thus it would be imprudent for PASOK to leave the coalition now. More
likely a compromise solution would be found for PASOK to save face.
Samaras managed to polarize the
political climate and polarization in times of emergency always helps the
government. He is playing high poker here, but he holds many cards in his
hands. Even if PASOK causes elections, chances are that Samaras would increase
his votes. He would claim that Greece needs a stable government and he is the
one that can deliver it. In the polls his party is still ahead and his personal
appeal is still high. His main threat comes from the rise of the fascists.
Showing intransigence and stubbornness may help him win approval from his
right.
