Many
are asking the rather obvious question. “What is the endgame?” Clearly the
answer is not an easy one. Not least because, there are many moving parts but
also because the parts are moving wildly and in many ways unpredictably.
It has
been a week since elections were declared in Greece and already the signs are
clear. It is going to be short, intense, dirty and void of any substance. They
say the first casualty of war is truth and the same must be said about election
campaigns especially if run in Greece. The situation is not helped by the fact
that many journalists or media are trying to pick on every word local
politicians are uttering. Politicians of such importance, they are not even recognized
by the porter of their block of flats. It gets however, worse when major international
news media use sensationalist headlines that are also reproduced in Greece in
order prove or refute a point or even influence the elections.
Let us
go through each party and its election campaign strategy and their chances.
New Democracy or ND (allegedly conservative)
ND is
on the ropes. It is the major government party (together with the
allegedly-socialist PASOK). They are clearly fighting a rearguard battle.
Samaras, the prime-minister, most probably lost his nerve after losing the
Euro-elections to Syriza in 2014. He dropped every promise and signature and in
his panic dropped the idea of expelling the IMF (which did not go down well).
When he realized that he could not finish the Troika review he dropped another
bomb. He moved forward the presidential elections knowing pretty well that the
chances of winning it were slim. By doing so, he passed the hot potato to the
new government. It is not the first time that Samaras has brought down his own
government. In fact, it is the third! When in the 90’s he was the foreign minister
he basically brought down the conservative government of Mr Mitsotakis on the
nationalist issue of the name of the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (FYROM,
long story). Subsequently, in 2012 he brought down the national unity government
of Mr Papademos (former vice president of the ECB) in order for him to become
the PM. In the process he risked Grexit in the double elections that followed.
Now he has brought down his own risking again the Grexit scenario. Perhaps psychologists
are better equipped to explain this kind of behavior than political analysts.
In any
case, ND is now fighting a battle where the initiative has been lost. The main
argument is “don’t vote for Syriza because you stand to lose your deposits”,
and “Greece may exit the Euro”. The electorate has heard these arguments before
and even though the cry wolf may be truer this time it is not believable.
Scaring people is never a good electoral strategy especially if you have used
it once before.
Thus if
the fear strategy campaign does not work then ND is going to lose these
elections. The margin would depend on the details of the campaign. On the other
hand, if fear prevails then ND does stand a chance of coming up first if other
parties like the newly formed party by former PM Papandreou (remember him)
steals enough votes from Syriza. On current balance probabilities are for a
Syriza win, but with 20 more days ahead of us anything goes.
Syriza (allegedly radical left
and anti-European)
Syriza
on the other hand clearly has the momentum advantage. To speak in military terms,
Syriza moved from parity to superiority but has not managed to gain supremacy.
They have followed an anti-European campaign (also anti-German or rather
anti-Merkel) but this seemed to have reached the limits of its applicability.
Most
Greeks do not wish to challenge Europe or Greece’s positions inside Europe.
They are very angry (using polite terms here) with the austerity imposed but
dropping out is too much. Thus Syriza upped the rhetoric. Instead of saying “out
of Europe” they changed the theme to “We are the force of European change”. In
many ways, this is identical to increasing the lie so that it becomes more
believable, a standard trick in every propaganda war. Many have fallen for this
trick. It gives a virtual vision and a dream. And everyone likes a good dream. The
mountain can sometimes go to Muhammad rather than Muhammad go to the mountain.
The
rest is mere detail. Syriza ostensibly cares about the misery and poverty 6
years of recession have caused. It has shown, however, little willingness to
remedy this, unless they are political-vote gains for them. They say no to
everything. For example, one may presume that they would be allies to Troika’s
effort to fight tax-evasion or even corruption but he would be mistaken.
All
this mean one thing. The day after they win the elections, they would have to
make colossal U-turn on almost every pre-election promise. And this is where
the risk lies. Too many of its party members have seen the “light” and
converted to that intransigent almost jihadist gospel. Syriza would need
support from other parties to govern whether they technically have enough MP’s
or not. Chances are that they would be short majority by around 15-20 MP. In
other words, they would have 130-5, when they need 150+. But given the
possibility of losing from the left flank, Tsipras (Syriza’s leader) would have
to make major concessions.
As
always it is not the turn but the timing of the turn that is important. If it
comes to late then Greece risks a major confrontation with European partners
that may lead a change of status within the EU similar to what happen in
Cyprus. This is the nightmare scenario. Currently, we don’t give high chances
for this scenario despite the scaremongering. Tsipras wants to become PM and in
order to achieve it he needs the consent of the creditors, sorry, I meant
European partners.
Potami (new center party)
Potami
is a new party that was formed less than a year ago by an ex-journalist. It
managed to get 6.6% in the European elections. It has a clear pro-European
agenda and a reformist agenda. It believes that many things need to change but
without destroying everything in the process. So far, it has managed to draw
support from the left and from the right in a balanced way. On the down side it
is a new party and it may get squeezed by the dilemmas that are bound to reign
in the election campaign. However, it stands to elect between 20-25 MP and in
this case would hold the balance of power. Chances are that Potami would be the
third party and they would get the invitation to form a government in a hung
parliament.
In many
ways, Potami has sawn the seeds of a new grand centrist party in Greece. The
forthcoming elections would be a testing time. If it survives, it will replace
the ailing PASOK and would become the major pro-european greek party.
Papandreou-Pasok
The
former PM decided to split from the party his father founded and he was a PM.
His dislike of the current PASOK leadership (Mr Venizelos) is legendary. This
is the wild card of the elections. Many predict that it would cut enough votes
from Syriza and this may tip the balance. Others, believe that it would split
the PASOK down the middle with neither party gaining the 3% needed to enter the
parliament. In many ways, this is the last stand of Mr Papandreou and his
family legacy that started with his grandfather in the 1940’s. There is no
policy or position. His party aims for the reminiscent voters the disgruntled voters
and banks on the family legacy and network.
Pasok
too fight for survival as they poll around 4-5%. Papandreou would cause damage
to them. If they survive then they would play a role in a national unity government
the day after.
Democratic Left (DHMAR)
Not much
to say here apart from the fact that its leader managed to shot himself and the
party straight to the head from pointblank range. He apparently made a deal
with Syriza not to vote for president and to bring down the government and then
Syriza performed the double-crossing of the year (many more to follow, I guess).
They unceremoniously dropped them right after. The elections would only put the
RIP sign at their headquarters.
Independent Greeks (ANEL)
We have
dealt with them before not least because their leader believes in the chemtrail
conspiracy. They have a total anti-European policy but from the right. They
seem to be losing support and although currently they stand to enter the
parliament (>3%) given the polarization they may fail. They may be a natural
ally to Syriza in the aftermath. After all, Mr Tsipras, the leader of Syriza
called them credible and honest!
Golden Dawn
This is
the big unknown. Although half of their MP including the leadership is in jail
they still have strong support as the anti-everything party. The revelation
that it is a Nazi party did not seem to repel too many voters. They are aiming
for third place.
If
there is a hang parliament then the president can give the order to form a
government to the first three parties. Thus although no party would be willing
to talk to them, semantically they may the invitation to form a government if
third.
All the
above point to a messy campaign and a messy few weeks after the election. Fasten
your 7-point airplane aerobatic seatbelt harness for some serious moves and possibly
bailouts.
